Dan Barlow - Tip #13
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You cad! You ordered that mind-reading course from the home
shopping channel and instead of using your new power to help the
country by interrogating criminals or becoming a spy, you're using
it to try to win cribbage tournaments. Of course, the ability to
read your opponent's mind doesn't help you get good cards or helpful
cuts, so you keep ending with this same position. You need nine
holes, your opponent needs a mere three, and he deals. You
look into his deepest thoughts and discover that he has more than
three points. Not only that, but you discover that you can peg
nothing, no matter what cards you save and no matter what order you
play your cards in. As you know his cards, it'll be easy to keep him
from pegging three holes, but which four cards give you the best
chance of coming up with nine points? The game is riding on your
decision. No flushes are possible.
1. You can score nine points only with the 4-6-10-K.
2. Any reasonable holding gives you many shots at nine points, but
the holding that gives you the BEST chance is 4-5-6-9.
3. 2-6-7-8 is slightly better than A-6-7-8,
as it wins on the cut of a 5.
4. You have more winning cuts if you save 2-3-4-9
than any other hand.
5. Save A-4-5-Q or (A-4-5-K). This
wins if you pair the face card or cut a 5 or a
6. A-4-Q-K may seem equally good and
4-5-Q-K may seem slightly better, but not when you discount
the benefits of cutting a J. If the cut is a J,
not even your mind-reading abilities can keep opponent from pegging
6. Once again, you can't afford to cut a J. Thus,
A-2-3-J is a loser. A-2-3-10 and
A-2-3-Q win if you pair any of your cards, so you
have twelve winning cuts. But 2-3-J-Q wins on the cut
of a 2, 3, 10 or
K or the right 5 or the right Q.
That gives you fifteen winning cuts (fourteen if you are already
holding the right Q).
- Text copyright © 2002 by Dan Barlow. All rights reserved.
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