George "Ras" Rasmussen - Tip #3

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The 4-5 or 7-8 comparison provides some very interesting insights as to the potential of these discards to your crib. It should be noted that the "or" above is not intended to infer that you will always have discard choices. Although knowledge of the potential of discard choices will increase the likelihood that options will appear in hands which seemed previously to have none.

Discard choices are not equally available. For example, the 4-5 works reasonably well with ten-point cards (x), of which more than 30% comprise the deck. I have recorded 3,059 discards of the 7-8. the 4-5 discard has been made 538 times. Note that the 4-5 average of 6.6 is increasing while the 7-8 average of 6.4 is declining. Even so, at present levels the 4-5 will produce 162 points more than the 7-8 over 1,000 discards. The 4-5 does well with the ten-point cards and makes a nice crib when pone discards K-6, Q-6, 10-6, J-6, K-3, Q-3, J-3 or 10-3. It also does well with A-x, which is a common choice. Please note that the 7-8 is an excellent choice if you must have a monster crib (20-24). A closer look at these discard options follows:

4-5

  2 Pts 3-7 Pts 8-11 Pts 12-15 Pts 16+ Pts
6.6 Avg. 35 294 164 40 5*
538 Hands 6.55% 54.59% 30.58% 7.42% 0.09%

* None recorded over 16 points

7-8

  2 Pts 3-7 Pts 8-11 Pts 12-15 Pts 16+ Pts
6.44 Avg. 575 1,633 385 382 84**
3,059 Hands 18.80% 53.36% 12.60% 12.50% 0.09%

** 26 of these totaled 20-24 points (monsters)

It should be noted that the 7-8 will tally only two points to your crib nearly three times as frequently as the 4-5. The 7-8 will have a value of seven points or less 72.16% of the time. In contrast, the 4-5 will total 3-11 points 85.15% of the time. Only when looking at the twelve points or more categories does the 7-8 perform better. Even so, the percentage of "monster" cribs with the 7-8 discard to your own crib is .08% (that's less than one per hundred times discarded).

Based on this discarding experience, the 4-5 needs to gain favor as one will win more games over time giving this choice a chance to work. By the way, either of these discards averages are higher when given to an opponent. Did you suspect that was true?

- Republished by permission. Text copyright 2002 by George Rasmussen. All rights reserved.

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