George "Ras" Rasmussen  Tip #4
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A question often asked by many players is a K10
or a K9 the better discard to an opponent's crib? I
have recorded 2,999 actual K10 and 2,004 K9
discards. Based on this empirical data, I have discovered that these
two discards are the only ones that average less than 4.0 points.

7 or Fewer Points 
8 or More Points 
K10 
86.02% 
13.98% 
K9 
88.37% 
11.63% 
When looking at these two discard options in a more definitive
manner, there are distinct differences. The K10
discard produces a high percentage of zero cribs, far more than any
other discard choice and nearly twice as many as the K9.
However, the K10 is slightly more likely to produce
eight points or more in the opponent's crib.
In addition, the K10 is more than twice as likely to
total twelve points or more. Note that in 65 cases, the K10
has added up to more than twelve points...and in eleven cribs the
total was sixteen points or more! And the K10 may
surprise you with a 20 point crib! Even so, the chances of the
K10 producing sixteen points are less than 1/3 of 1%
with 11 actual occurrences in 2,999 discards.
Here is a rundown of the numbers for your perusal:
K10

0 
12 
37 
811 
1215 
16+ 
4.150 Avg. 
483 
895 
1,202 
354 
54 
11 
2,999 Discards 
16.1% 
29.8% 
40.1% 
11.1% 
1.8% 
0.4% 
K9

0 
12 
37 
811 
1215 
16+ 
3.903 Avg. 
175 
599 
997 
214 
19 
0 
2,004 Discards 
8.7% 
29.9% 
49.8% 
10.7% 
1.0% 
0.0% 
Do you need to blank you opponent's crib? The K10
would be the choice! What about board position? Would the risk of
1220 points motivate a K9 (which in my experience
has never produced more than twelve points)? The choice is a
personal one and is often decided by personal bias. In any case,
either choice is excellent as no other discard option averages less
than 4.0 points.
 Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George
Rasmussen. All rights reserved.
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