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George "Ras" Rasmussen - Tip #4 A question often asked by many players is a K-10 or a K-9 the better discard to an opponent's crib? I have recorded 2,999 actual K-10 and 2,004 K-9 discards. Based on this empirical data, I have discovered that these two discards are the only ones that average less than 4.0 points.
When looking at these two discard options in a more definitive manner, there are distinct differences. The K-10 discard produces a high percentage of zero cribs, far more than any other discard choice and nearly twice as many as the K-9. However, the K-10 is slightly more likely to produce eight points or more in the opponent's crib. In addition, the K-10 is more than twice as likely to total twelve points or more. Note that in 65 cases, the K-10 has added up to more than twelve points...and in eleven cribs the total was sixteen points or more! And the K-10 may surprise you with a 20 point crib! Even so, the chances of the K-10 producing sixteen points are less than 1/3 of 1% with 11 actual occurrences in 2,999 discards. Here is a rundown of the numbers for your perusal: K-10
K-9
Do you need to blank you opponent's crib? The K-10 would be the choice! What about board position? Would the risk of 12-20 points motivate a K-9 (which in my experience has never produced more than twelve points)? The choice is a personal one and is often decided by personal bias. In any case, either choice is excellent as no other discard option averages less than 4.0 points. - Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George Rasmussen. All rights reserved. |
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