George "Ras" Rasmussen - Tip #4
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A question often asked by many players is a K-10
or a K-9 the better discard to an opponent's crib? I
have recorded 2,999 actual K-10 and 2,004 K-9
discards. Based on this empirical data, I have discovered that these
two discards are the only ones that average less than 4.0 points.
||7 or Fewer Points
||8 or More Points
When looking at these two discard options in a more definitive
manner, there are distinct differences. The K-10
discard produces a high percentage of zero cribs, far more than any
other discard choice and nearly twice as many as the K-9.
However, the K-10 is slightly more likely to produce
eight points or more in the opponent's crib.
In addition, the K-10 is more than twice as likely to
total twelve points or more. Note that in 65 cases, the K-10
has added up to more than twelve points...and in eleven cribs the
total was sixteen points or more! And the K-10 may
surprise you with a 20 point crib! Even so, the chances of the
K-10 producing sixteen points are less than 1/3 of 1%
with 11 actual occurrences in 2,999 discards.
Here is a rundown of the numbers for your perusal:
Do you need to blank you opponent's crib? The K-10
would be the choice! What about board position? Would the risk of
12-20 points motivate a K-9 (which in my experience
has never produced more than twelve points)? The choice is a
personal one and is often decided by personal bias. In any case,
either choice is excellent as no other discard option averages less
than 4.0 points.
- Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George
Rasmussen. All rights reserved.
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