Tip 1: Discarding 8-8
Tip 2: Toss opponent K-6 or Q-9?
Tip 3: Tossing yourself 4-5 or 7-8
Tip 4: Toss opponent K-10 or K-9?
Tip 5: Toss yourself 5-K or 5-6?
Tip 6: Discarding to your own crib
Tip 7: Discarding to opponent's crib
Tip 8: Leading from 2-x-x-x
Tip 9: Double-Run Hypnosis!!
Tip 10: Small Hand Rule
Cribbage: game of chance or skill?
A question often asked by many players is a K-10 or a K-9 the better discard to an opponent's crib? I have recorded 2,999 actual K-10 and 2,004 K-9 discards. Based on this empirical data, I have discovered that these two discards are the only ones that average less than 4.0 points.
|7 or Fewer Points||8 or More Points|
When looking at these two discard options in a more definitive manner, there are distinct differences. The K-10 discard produces a high percentage of zero cribs, far more than any other discard choice and nearly twice as many as the K-9. However, the K-10 is slightly more likely to produce eight points or more in the opponent's crib.
In addition, the K-10 is more than twice as likely to total twelve points or more. Note that in 65 cases, the K-10 has added up to more than twelve points...and in eleven cribs the total was sixteen points or more! And the K-10 may surprise you with a 20 point crib! Even so, the chances of the K-10 producing sixteen points are less than 1/3 of 1% with 11 actual occurrences in 2,999 discards.
Here is a rundown of the numbers for your perusal:
Do you need to blank you opponent's crib? The K-10 would be the choice! What about board position? Would the risk of 12-20 points motivate a K-9 (which in my experience has never produced more than twelve points)? The choice is a personal one and is often decided by personal bias. In any case, either choice is excellent as no other discard option averages less than 4.0 points.
- Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George Rasmussen. All rights reserved.Previous | Next